4. Risk Management

(1) Management of Climate-related Risks

① Overview of Risk Management

It is important to recognize sustainability-related risks in light of business characteristics and risk profile, and to manage them based on appropriate evaluation to achieve the core concept of "creating a prosperous future through financial and capital markets" in the Vision 2030.

Climate-related risks, one sustainability-related issue, include not only climate phenomena, but also factors such as political and social responses and economic structures, which all interrelate. For example, the transition process to a decarbonized society includes effects to stocks and interest rates with changes in the overall economy (market risk). The transition also will affect the business and financial conditions of companies responding to climate change (credit risk), meaning climate-related risks could be a factor in inducing or increasing various existing risks. As such, we consider the effects of climate-related risks in our existing risk management framework. The definitions and management processes for various risks are as follows.

Risk Management System

■ Market Risk

Market risk refers to the risk of incurring losses due to market fluctuations, which affect the value of stock prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices.

In terms of the Group's trading business, by providing market liquidity the Group acquires compensation while at the same time taking on market risk through the holding of a certain amount of financial assets. The Group implements suitable hedges to curtail fluctuations in profits and losses. However, as hedges may fail to function effectively in times of stress, the Group sets limits on Value at Risk*1 (VaR: Maximum expected loss under certain confidence level) and loss estimates under various types of stress test*2 to ensure that they are within the scope of equity capital, after taking into consideration financial conditions and such factors as the business plans and budgets of subject departments. The Group also sets limits on such facets as position and sensitivity.

The departments in charge of the Group's trading services calculate positions and sensitivity for the purpose of assessing their own market risk, and monitor such. Meanwhile, risk management departments also monitor the status of market risk, confirm whether risk falls within the established limits, and report on such to management on a daily basis.

We carry out stress tests based on shortened scenarios from the NGFS to analyze and assess the effects of climate-related risks on trading positions. We will continue to improve these efforts in a timely manner.

  • *1The maximum possible loss of a given trading portfolio with a given probability over a given time horizon.
  • *2Calculate the Group's maximum losses based on scenarios of the most significant market fluctuations of the past and due to scenarios based on hypothetical risk events.

■ Credit Risk

Credit risk refers to the risk of losses caused in cases where a counterparty of a trade or the issuer of a financial product held by the Group suffers a default, or credibility deteriorates.

The credit risks generated in the trading business of the Group consist of counterparty risk and issuer risk.

Because the Group provides financial instruments, manages assets and makes investments, the Group is exposed to the risk that various instrument and transaction exposures concentrate on a specific counterparty. If the counterparty's credit situation worsens, the Group may incur significant losses. Therefore, the Group has established the upper limit on total exposure to any counterparty and periodically monitors such limit.

In regard to counterparty risk, the Group has established the upper limit on the credit-equivalent exposure that can be tolerated for each counterparty and periodically monitors such credit-equivalent exposure.

In addition, the Group measures total counterparty risk. The Group monitors the risk amount related to the issuer risk of financial instruments held for market-making.

We will enhance the assessment of our exposure to potential climate-related risks.

■ Operational Risk

Operational risk is the risk of losses that occur when internal processes, people, and systems do not perform adequately or do not function; it can also arise from external events.

The Group classifies operational risks into the categories of operations risk, systems risk, information security risk, compliance risk, legal risk, human resources risk, tangible assets risk, and monitors them by assigning departments responsible for individual risks. We work to reduce operational risk in response to the business characteristics of each Group company.

Also, we have formulated a BCP to prioritize the resumption and continuation of critical operations in the event of disruptions caused by earthquakes, fires, wind and flood damage, abnormal weather, terrorism, large-scale blackouts, or major infectious diseases affecting our headquarters, branches, or data centers. This plan ensures the safety of customers and employees, asset protection, and the continuation of essential operations*. Specifically, we have established a top-tier backup center and a system to maintain critical operations at alternative offices if headquarters functions are disrupted.

In Addition, when developing new products, we assess their appropriateness from an ESG perspective.

  • *The essential operations include: (1) Market settlement of already contracted but unsettled transactions, (2) Withdrawal operations, (3) New order processing for selling and redeeming products (domestic listed stocks, MRF, government bonds for individuals, and ordinary deposits), and customer orders for selling and covering margin trades.

■ Reputational Risk

Reputational risk refers to the possibility of the Group sustaining unforeseen losses and the Group's counterparties being adversely affected due to a deterioration of its reliability, reputation, and assessment caused by the spread of rumors or erroneous information. There are no uniform procedures for managing reputational risk because it can emanate from a variety of sources.

The Group has established various regulations under its Disclosure Policy, with particular emphasis on the management and provision of information. It has also set up the Disclosure Committee within the Company.

Each Group company is obligated to report information that could turn into reputational risk to the Disclosure Committee. That way, the Company can obtain and centrally manage information, and it disseminates accurate information in a prompt manner according to the decisions of the Disclosure Committee.

The Group strives to keep abreast of problems and occurrences that may affect its reputation risk so that if and when such problems occur, their impact on the Group can be minimized. It also acts to ensure that erroneous and inaccurate information is properly corrected, and that it responds appropriately to libel and other issues. The Group has public relations and investor relations systems in place to prevent and minimize risks regarding its reputation.

We will analyze and assess the effects of climate-related risks on our reputation.

② Climate-related Risks in the Risk Appetite Framework

As a global financial institution, the Group has established a business strategy and consistent risk-taking guidelines and introduced the Risk Appetite Framework (RAF) to strengthen risk governance. The RAF defines the types and total amounts of risk that the Group should willingly accept to achieve its revenue goals and business strategy as risk appetite and uses it as a common language within the Company about the risk-taking policy in general. After documenting the RAF as the Risk Appetite Statement, the Board of Directors deliberates and decides, and this statement is reviewed twice yearly.

Climate-related risks have been included in this statement since FY2021. With this inclusion, climate-related risks are properly identified, assessed, and effectively monitored based on their risk profile.

③ Top Risks (Climate Change)

The risk events that require particular attention in light of the Group's business characteristics are selected and managed as top risks. The management of the Company visualize the risk events that are identified and sorted out by relevant departments based on risk events collected from both inside and outside the Company as candidates for top risks, to enable the management to understand and discuss extensive risks when selecting the top risks. Moreover, the Group's Directors and Corporate Executive Officers identify and extract such candidates for top risks by making a forward-looking evaluation of the level of effects on the Group's performance and the possibility that such risk events will occur.

Given the increasing importance of the effects of climate change on the management of financial institutions and the stability of the financial system, the Group positions it as one of our top risks.

List of Top Risks

Risk Events Specific Examples
Intensifying international disputes and conflicts
  • The acceleration of economic blocks, and revisions to the global supply chain due to factors including the US-China conflict (Taiwan emergency), the protracted Russia- Ukraine war, and increasing tensions in the Middle East that spread to the deterioration of the global economy
Downgrading of JGBs and crash of yen assets
caused by instability of Japan's financial situation
  • A credit downgrading of JGBs due to concerns about deterioration in Japan's budget and spreading to sales of yen-denominated assets such as Japanese equities and government bonds by foreign investors
Japan's stagflation risk
  • The Japanese economy falling into stagflation with progress in structural inflation, mainly due to workforce shortages caused by the low birthrate, aging population and a reduction in foreign workers amid a stagnant domestic economy
US economic recession
  • The US economy falling into recession with a greater than anticipated slowdown in consumption and investment due to a sharp pace of interest rate hikes by the FRB
China's economic crisis
  • Successive defaults stemming from the real estate sector with no end to the downturn in the real estate market. Drastic deterioration in China's economy due to a credit crunch spreading to deterioration of the global economy
Recurrence of the financial crisis
  • Global financial crisis triggered by management instability of banks, etc.
Inadequate response to DX
  • Decline in the Group's competitiveness due to inadequate response to DX
Misinformation and disinformation through AI
  • Frequent election interference caused by the spread of disinformation utilizing generative AI, accelerating the social and political divisions
  • Fake news concerning the Group's management situation, etc. spread by SNS, etc. with a sharp rise in withdrawals of assets under management
Large-scale earthquake
  • Human and physical damage caused by a large-scale earthquake (earthquake directly beneath Tokyo, Nankai Trough earthquake, etc.)
Climate change (extreme weather)
  • Disaster/economic damage caused by extreme weather (El Nino phenomenon, etc.)
  • Turmoil caused by rapid transition to a low-carbon economy
Epidemic of a new infectious disease
  • The spread of infections inside and outside Japan due to an outbreak of an unknown infectious disease with long-term world-wide stagnation of economic activity
Losses on trading operations during stress
  • Significant fluctuations in stock prices, interest rates, credit spreads and foreign exchange rates, etc. due to unexpected market situations, with substantial losses incurred on the positions held by the Group
Deterioration in major investees' performance
and damage to the value of assets
  • Accounting for allowances and provisions due to deterioration in major investees' performance, etc. as well as incurring losses due to impairment
Cyber attack
  • Systems down due to a cyber attack and difficulties in continuing essential operations. As a result, the Group's reputation is damaged and business opportunities are also lost
System failure
  • System failures caused by human error, equipment failure and natural disaster, etc. and difficulties in continuing essential operations. As a result, the Group's reputation is damaged and business opportunities are also lost
Compliance risk
  • Payment of a fine due to the inability to prevent money laundering and involvement in terrorist financing
  • Deterioration in the Company's reputation due to inappropriate behavior by executives and employees such as insider trading and behavior that has a negative impact on customers
Information security risk
  • Damage to the Group's reputation due to leak of customer information, etc. Disadvantages including damage compensation costs and legal sanctions

(2) Environmental and Social Policy Framework

To strengthen our management system for environmental and social risks, including preserving the global environment and biodiversity and protecting human rights, the Group has formulated the Environmental and Social Policy Framework. This framework covers new investments, loans, and underwriting of bonds and stocks issuance and defines businesses for which the financing is prohibited and restricted.

When providing financing, we carry out initial ESG due diligence on the eligible projects. If it is deemed that additional confirmation is required as a result of the assessment, enhanced ESG due diligence is implemented to determine whether or not to provide financing. Where carrying out the project in question could risk severely damaging the Group's corporate value, additional discussions are held by the executive management to make a final decision on financing.

This framework will be reviewed regularly based on trends in Japan and overseas.

Revision of Environmental and Social Policy Framework

Timing Summary of Revision
June 2021 Formulated the Environmental and Social Policy Framework
December 2021 Expanded the scope to underwriting of bond and equity issuances.
December 2022 Tightened policies on palm oil plantation development projects,
deforestation-related projects, coal mining projects, and oil & gas development projects.
December 2023 Tightened policies on human rights and supply chain management

Summary of Environmental and Social Policy Framework (Climate Change)

Applicable Business Policies
New construction of coal-fired power
generation and expansion of existing facilities
We prohibit any financing where the use of proceeds are directed toward this type of business.
Regarding the underwriting of bonds and stocks issuance, however, issuers that announce a target for net zero GHG emissions by 2050, or businesses adopting new technology aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, may be considered on a case-by-case basis.
Palm oil plantation development When providing financing to a business, we will carry out ESG due diligence, carefully assessing whether the loss of wildlife habitat due to overdevelopment may lead to a loss of biodiversity, or land conflicts with indigenous residents, or human rights violations such as child labor/forced labor/human trafficking, or whether appropriate measures are taken to prevent them.
We will utilize these results in making decisions.
When providing financing to a business, we will confirm if RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil), an international certification system for palm oil, has been acquired.
Where this is not in place, we will encourage our clients to obtain certification.
We will encourage our clients to make environmental and human rights policies such as NDPE (No Deforestation, No Peat and No Exploitation) or other compatible policies.
Regarding new investments and loans, we will encourage our clients to enhance their supply chain management and traceability to ensure that similar initiatives will also apply to their supply chain.
Business involving deforestation When providing financing to a business, we will carry out ESG due diligence, carefully assessing whether appropriate measures will be taken to prevent a negative impact on the environment caused by the destruction of ecosystems, and whether illegal logging is carried out.
We will utilize these results in making decisions.
When providing financing to a business, we will encourage our clients to obtain FSC (Forest Stewardship Council), an international forest certification system or other compatible certifications or to make environmental and human rights policies such as NDPE or other compatible policies.
Regarding new investments and loans, we will encourage our clients to enhance their supply chain management and traceability to ensure that similar initiatives will also apply to their supply chain.
Coal mining We prohibit any financing where the use of proceeds are directed toward businesses using the mountaintop removal (MTR) method and new thermal coal mining businesses.
When providing financing to a business, we will carry out ESG due diligence, carefully assessing whether appropriate measures are taken to ensure occupational safety and a sanitary environment to prevent cave-in accidents, flood accidents, gas explosions, and human rights violations such as illegal labor.
We will utilize these results in making decisions.
Large-scale hydroelectric power
generation construction
When providing financing to a business, we will carry out ESG due diligence, carefully assessing whether appropriate measures will be taken against the destruction of the environment and ecosystems and negative impacts on local residents due to the construction of a dam.
We will utilize these results in making decisions.
Oil and gas development When providing financing to a business, we will carry out ESG due diligence, carefully assessing whether appropriate measures are taken against their impact on the environment, ecosystems and local communities.
We will utilize these results in making decisions.
In particular, we will make careful decisions when providing financing to development businesses in the Arctic, oil sands and shale oil and gas development businesses, pipeline businesses which may have significant negative impacts on the environment and society.